NC Emergency Management Hurricane Helene Update

North Carolina -- September 26, 2024: North Carolina Emergency Management: Update 1 pm Hurricane Helene is forecast

to continue to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall this evening. A general NE motion is expected today, but will shift to a NW motion after landfall. Helene is expected to maintain hurricane strength well into GA overnight tonight but will continue to weaken before making its closest approach to NC early Friday afternoon. Helene is a very large system, and its effects will be felt far from the center of the storm.

Heavy Rainfall / Flooding

Helene is expected to be a major rainfall event for the NC mountains with widespread to catastrophic flash flooding and near historic flooding along several mainstem rivers. With the potential for flash flood warnings to be issued overnight, ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings should rapid rises of water be observed in your area. Vulnerable areas should prepare for the worst-case scenario and areas that normally do not flood are likely to flood. Total additional rainfall of 9-14” with locally higher amounts up to 20” is forecast across for areas along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment from Thursday morning through midday Friday. Confidence is high that landslides and debris flows/slope failures will occur, especially during the heaviest rainfall rates tonight through midday Friday.

The greatest flash flooding threat today will be along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, with additional amounts of 4-7” (locally higher amounts) expected. Significant flash flooding is likely to develop in these areas before Helenes rain bands arrive tonight. Rainfall over the next two days, in addition to already saturated soils and ongoing flash flooding will worsen flash flood impacts, with locally catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding possible for areas along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. A High Risk for flash flooding is in place across portions of the mountains. High Risk days are very rare, but are dangerous, impactful, and often fatal. The threat for scattered to numerous flash floods will continue through Friday with heavy rainfall continuing through at least midday.
Severe Storms / Winds

With the threat for tornadoes to develop in place overnight across much of the state, ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and take action if a warning is issued for your area. The threat for tornadoes has increased across southern portions of central and eastern NC for late Thursday into Friday morning but spreads across much of the state Friday morning into the evening hours. Tornadoes within tropical systems offer very little lead time but are typically short lived.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for much of the mountains into the foothills, including the Charlotte Metro region. The wind gust forecast has increased overnight with wind gusts 45-60mph likely within the warning area and the potential for some areas to see wind gusts up to 70mph Thursday night through midday Friday. Outside of the mountains, wind gusts 25-40mph will be possible late Thursday through Friday. Many large tree limbs will be broken off with a few trees likely snapped or uprooted. Numerous to widespread downed trees and power outages are likely through Friday, with the greatest threat across the west where the heaviest rain and strongest wind gusts are forecast.