This forecast, released by the North Carolina Retail Merchants Association (NCRMA) and the Appalachian State University Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, marks the best-performing holiday season projected between 2022 and 2025.
The $43.97 billion projection reflects a significant acceleration of growth and a strong recovery from the economic fluctuations of the preceding three years.
Key Projections for Retail Growth
The report details strong month-over-month growth expectations for the critical shopping season:
November 2025 is projected to see a 1.63% increase in retail sales over November 2024.
December 2025 is forecast to experience a 2.65% increase over the previous December, reinforcing the historical trend of retail sales reaching their annual peak in the final month of the year.
Consumer Confidence and Local Resiliency
Andy Ellen, President & General Counsel of the North Carolina Retail Merchants Association, emphasized the strength behind the numbers.
“This year’s holiday sales forecast shows the resiliency and strength of North Carolina’s retail industry, and the trust North Carolina consumers have in our retailers to find their holiday needs, from gifts for friends and family, to food, beverages and decorative items for holiday dinners and celebrations,” Ellen stated.
The findings signal renewed consumer confidence and steady growth across the state. For local businesses in Western North Carolina (WNC), these insights are particularly valuable for fine-tuning inventory, pricing, and marketing strategies after several challenging years.
A Call to Support North Carolina Businesses
While the overall outlook is robust, retailers are urged to remain strategic, as consumers are expected to be focused on finding the best value. The report suggests that strong promotions and disciplined inventory management will be key to capturing the projected increase in spending.
In a final appeal to shoppers, Ellen continued: “Many retailers in North Carolina have faced difficult challenges in recent years. We are encouraged by this report and hope everyone will support North Carolina businesses whenever possible this holiday season.”
You can view the full report here: North Carolina Holiday Season Retail Outlook 2025